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Energy poverty is a multifaceted phenomenon that affects many Europeans. Alleviating energy poverty is high in the EU, national, and local policy agendas. Despite the attention the phenomenon has been gaining from a policy perspective, especially after the current energy crisis, there are still some gaps due to the complexity of the issue and its vastly different manifestations across Europe. This manuscript presents the policy implications stemming from the implementation of the POWEPROOR approach in alleviating energy poverty in eight European countries, as co-created with relevant stakeholders in each country. The knowledge gained from empowering energy-poor citizens by promoting behavioural changes and small-scale energy efficiency interventions, as well as by encouraging the uptake of renewable energy sources in the form of collective energy initiatives while leveraging innovative financing schemes, resulted in policy recommendations for national and sub-national governments and lessons for civil society and the private sector.
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PurposeThe aim of this Real Estate Insight is to comment upon the outlook for real estate investment in the United Kingdom (UK) at the beginning of 2023 in light of global inflation brought about by the pent-up post-pandemic demand push for goods and services and the exacerbation of the Ukraine/Russia conflict.Design/methodology/approachThis Real Estate Insight will comment upon changes in the investor's view of the UK economy and the relative attractiveness of the different property sectors and the shift in thinking post-pandemic.FindingsThis paper will consider a number of scenarios and possibilities flowing from the current uncertainties in the property market and the wider economy.Practical implicationsAs with all property investment, the value and performance of the property assets is interlinked with the use and demand of different property types. Understanding the supply and demand drivers provides investors with a reasoned conjecture of how the property market may perform going forward.Originality/valueThis is a review of the UK market in relation to post-COVID-19 changes to supply and demand at both an operational and investment level.
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Good evening. It is a pleasure and an honour to be here at NIESR to give the annual Dow lecture. We are very lucky in the UK to have high-quality independent institutions such as NIESR focusing on the policy landscape, and in my time on the MPC I have always valued their commentary and research.
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In recent years, time series forecasting has become an essential tool for stock market analysts to make informed decisions regarding stock prices. The present research makes use of various exponential smoothing forecasting methods. These include exponential smoothing with multiplicative errors and additive trend (MAN), exponential smoothing with multiplicative errors (MNN), and simple exponential smoothing with additive errors (ANN) for the forecasting of the stock prices of six different companies in the petroleum, electricity, and gas industries that are listed in the IBEX35 index. The database employed for this research contained the IBEX35 index values and stock closing prices from 3 January 2000 to 30 December 2022. The models trained with this data were employed in order to forecast the index value and the closing prices of the stocks under study from 2 January 2023 to 24 March 2023. The results obtained confirmed that although none of the proposed models outperformed the rest for all the companies, it is possible to calculate forecasting models able to predict a 95% confidence interval about real stock closing values and where the index will be in the following three months.
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PurposeThe Russian invasion of Ukraine generated unprecedented panic in the European financial system. As expected, the European Union (EU) felt most of the negative effects of the war due to geographical proximity to Ukraine and energy dependence on Russia. This study aims to investigate the influence of Brent crude oil (BCO), Dutch Title Transfer Facility Natural Gas, and CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) on Deutscher Aktien Index (DAX), Austrian Traded Index (ATX) and Milano Indice di Borsa (FTSEMIB). The German, Austrian and Italian equity indexes were chosen due to the heavy dependence of these countries on Russian gas and oil.Design/methodology/approachThe data cover the period from November 24, 2021, to June 24, 2022, including five months of the Russia–Ukraine war. To generate the intended results, vector autoregressive, structural vector autoregressive, vector error correction model, Johansen test and Granger causality test were used.FindingsThe results highlight that natural gas and the VIX carried negative effects on DAX, ATX and FTSEMIB. The BCO was expected to have influenced three selected equity indexes, while the results suggest that it was priced only in ATX.Originality/valueThis research provides modest evidence for the policymakers on the systemic risk that Russian gas has for the EU equity markets. From a managerial perspective, changes in oil and gas prices are a permanently integral part of portfolio risk analysis.
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In the context of the war, the external environment is characterized by a growing level of uncertainty. Rising energy prices, the closure of airspace in Ukraine, rising inflation, a 30% decline in GDP in 2022, and the destruction of infrastructure as well as supply chains have necessitated adjustments to the company's operations and changes to its financial plan. The research aims to assess the financial aspects of doing business in the face of unexpected changes. The research methodology is based on the case study of a company that supplies energy resources to Ukraine. The main research methods used are in-depth interviews with the staff to assess the existing strategy, employee motivation system, efficiency of the organizational structure, and financial aspects of the company's activities. The results demonstrate that an important stage in the development of a financial plan in wartime is the audit of business activities. It includes an understanding of the current state of the organizational, financial, and human aspects of the company's functioning. An in-depth interview with the company's personnel shows the level of effectiveness of the interaction of all these aspects of the business. Changes in the financial system involve organizational changes: company structure, motivation system, customer interaction, and service improvement. The study shows that the interaction of organizational, financial, and motivational components contributed to the synergy of the company's resources and their mobilization in the face of the growing risks of a company's crisis. Financial planning by business segments and precision in the distribution of employees' responsibilities increases the level of motivation and involvement of staff in all business processes. Moreover, the distribution of centers and areas of responsibility should be linked to the incentives and motives of employees.
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The negative socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are widely discussed. However, relatively less attention is paid to its impact on the world commodity price formation including energy and food prices. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on world energy commodity prices and their interactions with world food commodity prices. Using the World Bank data on commodity prices we look for evidence of changes in energy and food prices caused by occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic, which was assumed to be a negative shock to the global economy in terms of both supply and demand. Based on data series analysis of indices of world energy and food commodity prices, it is evident that after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic the energy prices, especially oil prices, plummeted. Food prices followed the same direction;however, their plunge was much less extreme. In general, it can be concluded that the pandemic caused a severe energy price shock which clearly had a negative impact on global economic growth, but the scale of this impact differs depending on the type of economic sector and countries' net export positions in energy and food trade. © 2023 by the authors.
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After the economic shock caused by COVID-19, with relevant effects on both the supply and demand for energy assets, there was greater interest in understanding the relationships between key energy prices. In order to contribute to a deeper understanding of energy price relationships, this paper analyzes the dynamics between the weekly spot prices of oil, natural gas and benchmark ethanol in the US markets. The analysis period started on 23 June 2006 and ended on 10 June 2022. This study used the DMCA cross-correlation coefficient in a dynamic way, using sliding windows. Among the main results, it was found that: (i) in the post-pandemic period, oil and natural gas were not correlated, in both short- and long-term timescales;and (ii) ethanol was negatively associated with natural gas in the most recent post-pandemic period, especially in short-term scales. The results of the present study are potentially relevant for both market and public agents regarding investment diversification strategies and can aid public policies due to the understanding of the interrelationship between energy prices. © 2023 by the authors.
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Regardless of the fact, whether governments of particular country implemented the strong lockdown measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 or not, the economies of each country all over the word have been suffered considerably due to the shocks caused by the pandemic. We observed slowdown of economic activity, macroeconomic instability and shifts in consumption preferences supplemented by rising unemployment as well as significant fluctuation of demand and production capability. The research problem addressed in this paper focuses on dynamic properties of output and inflation fluctuations that occur in response to economic shocks different magnitudes and types. We use a system dynamic approach and constructs two system dynamic models to examine the dynamics of output, prices, wage and inflation. The paper indicates ranges of relevant parameters' values that correspond with sensitivity of output to demand and production capability changes related to possibility of reaching new equilibrium point. To explore the variety of prices and wage behavior in response to shocks we evaluate distinguish possible phase diagrams associated with stable node, stable focus, circle, unstable focus and unstable node. The results is a contribution to discussion of the policy issues related to mitigation of recession caused by unpredictable and strong shocks.
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This study examined the relationship between green metal price shocks and green real estate development using the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model. Real-time daily dataset for the study covers the period from January 4, 2021, to December 30, 2022. The findings are presented using two methods: cumulative impulse responses and variance decompositions. The cumulative impulse responses show how structural shocks affect the volatility of green real estate over time. The variance decompositions show the percentage of the variation in green real estate volatility that is caused by each structural shock. The results showed that green real estate development responded negatively to green metal shocks for at least half of the observed period, and the energy price, specifically oil, had a greater and more persistent negative impact. This suggests that changes in oil prices may continue to have a significant influence on the development of green real estate projects and the broader transition towards environmentally sustainable practices in the construction industry. The explained variable, on the other hand, had a positive response to shocks associated with green finance in the latter part of the observed period. Policy and practical implications of the findings have also been discussed. © 2023
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GDP, monetary variables, corruption, and uncertainty are crucial to energy policy decisions in today's interrelated world. The global energy crisis, aggravated by rising energy prices, has sparked a thorough analysis of its causes. We demonstrate the significance of categorizing research by influence channels while focusing on their implications for energy policy decisions. We investigate the growing number of studies that use GDP, inflation, central banks' characteristics, corruption, and uncertainty as critical factors in determining energy policies. Energy prices fluctuate because energy policies shift the supply–demand equilibrium. We categorise the effects and show that GDP, economic policy uncertainty, and, most notably, specific economic conditions and extreme events play a significant role in determining energy prices. We observed that energy consumption, GDP growth, and energy prices have a bidirectional, causal relationship. Still, the literature has not established which causative direction is the most significant. Taxes, interest rates, and corruption also significantly determine energy prices, although the origins of corruption have not been adequately examined. Lastly, uncertainty generally increases energy costs, but this relationship requires additional research in terms of the features of countries, conditions, and, most importantly, the theoretical backgrounds used.
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An environmentally friendly city is a livable home for the future. Can the rapidly developing digital economy help decrease carbon emissions and realize a low-carbon and clean city promptly? This study focuses on examining how multi-dimensional digital economic growth has influenced CO2 emissions across 280 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2019. Findings discover that (1) An "n”-type curve nexus exists between CO2 emissions and the digital economy in Chinese cities, which means that digital economy expansion initially strengthens CO2 emissions, but at a certain level, it can help achieve the target of urban decarbonization;(2) The digital economy's influence on CO2 emissions is spatially spilled and regionally heterogeneous, and by means of economies of scale and industrial composition upgrades, it can help the city to lower carbon emissions and benefit the low carbonization of neighboring cities. However, based on the "rebound effect”, the intermediary role of technological effects in reducing emissions in the short term is not apparent;(3) The expansion of trade openness and appropriately stringent environmental rules in line with national conditions are beneficial to lower CO2 emissions in the city and the surrounding cities in the short term. It is recommended that policy makers actively promote the development of the digital economy, strengthen exchanges and cooperation between cities, narrow the gap between cities, and actively learn the advanced management concepts of surrounding cities through the development of economies of scale and industrial structure transformation to accomplish the target of "carbon neutrality” sooner rather than later.
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Global supply shock suffered massive disruption because of COVID-19 in the last few years. Such a shock is accompanied by an energy price surge caused by the war in Ukraine. We study the effects of energy price shocks (common, idiosyncratic) on inflation due to energy price issues. We set up a panel structural VAR (PSVAR) model to study whether energy price shocks exhibit long memory properties (persistence) having permanent (long-run) effects on global inflation. The model is modelled under Cholesky and Blanchard-Quah restrictions. We calculate medians, averages, and interquartile impulse response functions with confidence interval quantiles following bootstrapping procedure. We see energy shock impact on headline inflation last 2.5 years (slow mean-reversion) reaching pre-crisis level. © 2022 by the authors.
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The property market in Central European Region countries share a number of common features among which privatization, restitution of property, massive regulation or underdeveloped financial market all of which contributed on persisting property market imbalances and continuous dynamic changes. These changes have recently been significantly exacerbated by the presence of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and a significant increase in energy prices (heating of apartments and houses, production of building materials, etc.). It is currently difficult for investors and people looking for their own housing to predict the future development of housing prices and housing affordability. This article analyses the housing market trends in this region taking the example of the Czech Republic using unique primary statistical data. It offers a deeper insight into the trends present on this market, identifies significant determinants of housing prices and evaluates changes in housing affordability. Our research reveals why the property market trends may contribute to opening inequality scissors and thus economic stability. This research is based on primary statistical data mined by EVAL software which allows to gather information about the development of the real estate market from real estate advertising. © 2022, Bucharest University of Economic Studies. All rights reserved.
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Climate change imposes increased stress on the relationship between energy and financial markets. Countries with energy matrices that depend on water sources influenced by climatic phenomena must identify and control their impact on energy prices and financial markets. This research analyses if the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon affects the relationship between electricity prices and financial markets. To that end, we apply wavelet analysis for bivariate time series and contagion tests to examine the correlations and evaluate the presence of contagion. The cross-wavelet power spectrum coherence coefficients suggest two periods where energy prices and the stock market are closely related: The strong El Niño phase in 2015, which confirms our conjecture, and the first stages of the 2020 Covid Pandemic. For the el Niño phase, the energy price leads the stock market in scales from three to eight months, while for the pandemic period, the unexpected disruption produces changing patterns for the same scales. There is also a robust long-term coherence for longer scales beginning in 2012. Moreover, the contagion tests confirm the contagion between markets during extreme climate events. Thus, our alternative method to uncover market relationships beyond traditional econometric contagion approaches contributes to theoretical discussions.
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The main idea of this study is the development of a quadripartitioned neutrosophic relations(properties)-based on decision-making method to recommend the most influential factor that affects energy prices in Colombia during pandemic. For supporting the results, we take some particular cities which are located in Colombia where prices of energy have been affecting before, during and after Covid-19 pandemic. The result provides evidence on the feasibility of the proposed method in recommending the influential factors that affect energy prices. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
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In the recent two decades of recorded literature, energy poverty is increasingly understood as a multi-dimensional issue caused by the low-carbon energy transition. In this study, a literature review was performed, the outcome of which confirmed the contentious nature of energy poverty at the regional and international levels of analysis. Furthermore, the collected literature enabled the identification of those domains under which energy poverty is prevailing. The impacts of the current COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war on energy prices and energy poverty were also considered key issues of interest in recently published studies (published within the last five years). While all the collected studies in the literature review covered a wide geographical context worldwide, a comprehensive analysis of nurturing energy poverty sources and their consequences was primarily and foremost understood in the household sector, which was the research focus of this study, accordingly. Moreover, future research guidelines that should be drawn regarding energy poverty alleviation were also proposed. © 2023 by the authors.
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Global energy markets are experiencing an unprecedented confluence of events that are driving up gas prices and bringing energy security to the forefront, adding further complexity to already uncertain prospects following global economic recovery from COVID-19. This article examines the factors that have led to the current surge in natural gas prices and the role of green investment in enhancing energy security and accelerating the transition pace for a sustainable world. It also discusses the potential short- and long-term implications of ongoing spikes in energy prices on global energy transition. The analysis highlights that while renewables could provide a promising solution to enhance energy security, the current energy crisis has revealed that the current scale of renewable energy investments is not ready to address ongoing energy needs, forcing countries to re-unlock further hydrocarbon fuel sources such as coal, putting global energy transition on hold. The paper concludes with policy recommendations that enable unlocking clean energy investments amid a strained geopolitical context.
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Energy prices are generally more volatile than the prices of other commodities. This is because short-term energy demand responds more quickly to the impact of economic growth than to price changes. This paper aims to analyse this phenomenon. Therefore, when an energy shock occurs, an important price change may be necessary to influence the market. Currently such shock has been caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has produced the biggest sustained change in demand since World War II. In the medium to long term, energy prices will rise if investment will not be on an upward trend, which seems unlikely given the current environmental protection guidelines adopted by many countries around the world. In our paper we argue that supply and demand shocks and high price volatility are likely to continue to weigh on the energy market and the global economy.